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| APRIL 2008 NEWSLETTER “Plans are worthless. Planning is invaluable.” Sir Winston Churchill Churchill’s words seemed a perfect lead-in for this month’s discussion on the current state of the market and the planning we are doing for you. While our research recommends that we stay the course in the short-term, there are steps to be taken in the near future in order to best position you for long-term success. The key objective is preservation of capital and managing risk. I believe the risk is higher in terms of loss versus missing any huge gains. Protecting against the downside will be our first priority. Our portfolio planning has signaled that we should begin an orderly exit from the volatile sectors of Technology, Asia-ex Japan and India towards the end of this year and into early 2009. Over the next year or two, we will be exiting the Commercial Real Estate, High Yield Bond and Financial sectors as well. We advise replacing these with very defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Basic Materials, Energy, Cash and hedging strategies over time. Maintaining broad diversification is imperative since plans must be responsive to changing conditions. The trigger for action is most likely going to be a drop or leveling in consumer expenditures. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases this data every thirty days. As I have related in prior newsletters, personal spending has been rising every month for the past nineteen years. When this economic fuel is no longer pumping through the economy, it is very likely there will be a slowing of the economy that then infects the stock markets. Lower interest rates and lower gas prices are not necessarily the answer. Even higher home prices and low unemployment may not be enough to counter the ebbing of this historically large wave of dollars through the economy. With that said, here is the plan. Our research leads us to believe that the current market correction is not the BIG event we have been forecasting and we may be at a bottom. Further our research says we may have seen the peak in stock market values back in late 2007. Therefore, we advise staying the course and reaping the benefit of the potential rebound to the recent peak portfolio values. Best regards,  | |
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Defensive Portfolio Measures
FEBRUARY
The Lagging Healthcare Sector
AUGUST
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MARCH
APRIL
Investing in India
MAY
Consistency
JUNE
The path Ahead
JULY
Gradually Moving Back to Bonds
AUGUST
Key Demographic Statistics
SEPTEMBER
Closed-End Funds
OCTOBER
Revising Dent's Expectations
NOVEMBER
Service Integrations
IRA ADVISOR NEWSLETTER 2006
Trow profiled in the April Newsletter
MATTHEWS ASIA NOW
NEWSLETTER 2006
The Demographics Issue
BNET BUSINESS NETWORK 2001
Ready to Retire